Topics of foresight studies 1995-1998

2. Dynamics of science and technology (S&T)

3. Organising innovation
3.1 The foresight study in a nutshell
3.2 Perspectives for agricultural education
3.3 Methodology for quality assessment of academic research

1. Social Dynamics

1.1 The social and cultural positions of nature and agriculture in the 21st century

1.2 Agribusiness

The foresight study on globalisation and internationalisation emphasized that, on a global scale, agribusiness is faced with a vast challenge of adaptation as competitive relations will be changing strongly on all markets, including the domestic one. In addition to price, the challenge will be increasingly to stand out from other market competitors by adding value to products or by providing additional service. The point will be to create value out of knowledge: knowledge will be the key element of future competitiveness. In addition to export, it will also be important to settle into foreign markets in order to respond more adequately to the cultural characteristics of those specific markets.
Knowledge institutes will have to be alert and anticipating. They, too, will be forced to create value out of their knowledge in a competitive international market. Consequently, institutes as well as individual researchers will be required to adopt different attitudes in their business relations. Furthermore, knowledge institutes will have to present themselves as co-innovators in their clients' innovation processes while developing their own capabilities to act as knowledge brokers.
In view of this perspective it was suggested to develop in Wageningen, beside its strong technological position, a strong position in knowledge about international enterprise. This would be both the means and the objective of finding alignment with international agribusiness. The suggestion is currently developed into more detail by the Gamma division of Wageningen UR.
The report 'Globalisation and Agribusiness' (98/2E) was published in February 1998.(See the Reports section)

The foresight study on markets and consumers represented one of the more salient instances of focusing on 'mass individualisation' and its effects on business and industry. Consumers can no longer be divided into familiar categories and they demonstrate unpredictable types of behaviour. Entrepreneurs should make use of that development. This requires extremely flexible and responsive action. Thus, the relative rigidity of agro-chains prevailing today will have to change into more open types of networks. Current Western and emerging markets anywhere in the world will require their own specific approaches. Several actions were developed in this foresight study. The most important action involved a knowledge centre specialized in integrated chain and network management, which should pay explicit attention to transport, distribution and logistics within the defining context of space, the environment and the quality of life. This suggestion was a contributing factor to establishing a knowledge centre on 'Chains, Logistics and ICT' (CLICT) as part of ICES during the fall of 1998. Another suggestion was to develop an information and knowledge system about emerging markets. A consortium of knowledge institutes, government agencies and private companies developed a 'data warehouse' prototype for agribusiness. The Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI-DLO) acted as project leader.
The report 'Market Strategies and Consumer Behaviour' (98/3E) was published in February 1998. (See the Reports section)

As a result of the foresight study on agriculture and the environment it was recognized that it would require an essentially new approach to bring about sustainable agriculture. Long-term objectives are so strict that they are impossible to achieve by looking for end-of-pipe or process-integrated solutions at individual business level. What is needed are structural innovations or system innovations that reach beyond individual enterprises or even the industry involved. These types of innovations will always need contributions by several interested parties, several businesses, different sectors (including sectors from outside agriculture), local and regional administrators and social organisations. All those involved will need to adjust their perspectives, shifting from an exclusively production-focused orientation to an orientation that is prepared to do justice to different social values.
An important action based on this study was to design an innovation programme for conservationist system innovations. In addition, it was argued that it was advisable to establish a social-scientific network for agricultural-environmental issues within Wageningen UR. Also, the study argued in favour of building a network for monitoring and management information on agriculture and the environment.
The report 'Agriculture and the Environment' (98/4E) was published in February 1998. (See the Reports section)

The foresight study on healthy animal production demonstrated that the strong position of the Netherlands in the field of animal health is being threatened by factors that are mostly beyond the control of those that are directly involved. A relatively strong position is at risk of turning into a weak position. The challenge is to engage private enterprise, government agencies, social groups and knowledge institutes in designing new strategies and finding sustainable solutions. Thus, it was proposed to design innovation programmes for animal health strategies and 'integrated systems of animal production.' It was furthermore suggested to establish an assessment network for the epidemiology of animal diseases as well as a monitoring system for animal diseases. In addition, the NRLO argued in favour of a new curriculum of training courses for policy-making epidemiologists and veterinary quality managers.
The report 'Towards Healthy Animal Production' (98/5E) was published in February 1998.(See the Reports section)

The foresight studies described above provided the material for the end report, which was called 'Agribusiness: Knowledge and Innovation Priorities - Aspirations for the 21st Century.' It was presented to the Minister of Agriculture, Nature Management and Fisheries (LNV) in May 1998. What is emphasized in the report is that agribusiness will be able to achieve sustained development only if it contributes to the quality of the society. It will be necessary to realize new international networks for creating knowledge and innovations, networks that will do justice to all kinds of values in society while responding to an increasing pluralism of business types.

1.3 Rural areas

In 1998 the research programme for town and countryside was concluded. The programme breaks out of the division in knowledge development regarding the problems of town and countryside. The issue agrees with the theme of 'Integrated use of space' in the 1997 Science Budget. The programme may contribute to establishing a knowledge and innovation network for rural areas.

The suggestion made in 'Rural Areas Put on the Map' to establish a number of knowledge and innovation centres for rural area development was taken as a starting-point in a project called 'Knowledge in countryside innovation.' The centres were aimed to facilitate building regional networks around countryside innovation. Also, these centres were thought to provide an opportunity to test several types of interactive knowledge development. One of the project's objectives is to put forward recommendations on knowledge management, personal skills and the institutional design of knowledge development.

In an NRLO study about 'Foresight studies and policy-making in town and country planning' it was concluded that there was a gap between those conducting the foresight studies, on the one hand, and their potential users in circles of strategic policy-makers, on the other. This has resulted in a new project which is essentially designed to establish a learning trajectory for gaining experience in interactive ways of developing and conducting foresight studies for the benefit of physical-planning policy-making. The project is due to start in 1999 and it will be carried out by the Advisory Council on Government Policy (WRR).

1.4 Fisheries and aquaculture

Thus, a strategic exploration was carried out to study the possibilities of strengthening the distribution function of Dutch fisheries and aquaculture on the European market. The investigative part of the study was concluded toward the end of 1998. Here, too, it appeared that this could be realized only through a joint and comprehensive action by all the parties in the fish chain. A symposium and a more detailed outline of feasible strategies will follow during 1999.

One of the conclusions of the foresight study is that this sector, too, will be increasingly faced with spatial limitations. This will be particularly pronounced in the comparatively young policy-making area of Coastal Zone Management (CZM). Late 1998 the Institute of Environmental Studies (IVM) was assigned the task to establish new or anticipated developments in CZM which might result in new questions or new procedures for the knowledge infrastructure of the Netherlands.

2. Dynamics of science and technology (S&T)

• Mapping the dynamics of a great number of S&T areas and their significance for agribusiness, rural areas and fisheries.
• Analysing the strengths and weaknesses of the knowledge infrastructure for a selected number of strategic S&T areas.
• Formulating actions aimed at reinforcing the knowledge infrastructure for relevant S&T areas.

Applying a method that was developed at the request of the NRLO, the Centre for Technology and Policy Studies (STB-TNO) identified the strengths and weaknesses of the knowledge infrastructure for those S&T areas. The key elements of the method included: resource position, system characteristics and performance. The elements were translated into qualities that could be assessed by using various indicators (see table below). Several case-studies demonstrated the usefulness of the method.

	Qualities	Indicators
Resource position	Capacity (and its development) Financing Continuity	Number and size of groups Flows of funds Succession of 'pioneers'
System characteristics	Network participation Management	Number, size and impact of networks Joint publications and citations Central actors in network
Performance	Level of scientific quality Social relevance	Publications and citations Peer reviews Participation in Centres of Excellence Contract research Licences, patents

Action proposals were drawn up for each individual S&T area. Early 1999 the proposals will be made public in the form of advising letters.
The analysis in terms of assets and liabilities appeared to result in specific conclusions for each S&T area. Nonetheless, several issues were found repeatedly in various S&T areas:

• available capacity fragmented between many institutes;
• lack of balance between foundational and applied research;
• one-sided development of networks and, correspondingly, poor relations and cooperation between those supplying and demanding knowledge as well as with researchers from outside the fields of agribusiness, rural areas and fisheries;
• a predominance of research groups with high or even very high levels of scientific quality;
• great variation in the social relevance of study results.

3. Organising innovation

3.1 The foresight study in a nutshell

• Strategies for knowledge institutes.
  In 1996 a strategic foresight study was conducted to examine the future of Wageningen Agricultural University ('Wageningen in Profile' (96/9); see also the 1996 annual report). In 1998 a foresight study investigated the organisations in agricultural education (see: 'The Perspective of Agricultural Education').
• The position of agriculture and horticulture.
  The former 'triptych' of Research, Education and Information strongly emphasized the need for modernising agricultural and horticultural farms. However, this has changed recently. Instead, entrepreneurs are now faced with the question of what role they and their sector organisations will have to play during the next few years in organising innovations. In 1997 several monographs were written about the subject (about innovation in dairy farming, pig farming, cultivation under glass and arable farming) and a workshop was organised (see the 1997 annual report and report no 97/44).
• Partnerships.
  Innovations would have hardly if any chance to succeed if all the parties involved were not prepared to stick to their trade: both cooperation and individual latitude are essential. Thus, the future challenges faced by agribusiness, fisheries and rural areas require far-reaching forms of cooperation between various stakeholders, including parties who thus far considered themselves to be competitors as well as parties who only now have recognized that they are involved, too. An ad hoc committee of experts which was established by the NRLO (under the working title of 'Mixed fruit') examined the new partnerships aimed at innovation. The result was published in the form of a report (98/7).
• Innovation policies.
  Policy-making is one of the more explicit - or at least more intentional - ways of organising. Future innovation policies by and for civil government, trade and industry, social organisations and knowledge institutes represented major themes of various NRLO activities, although they were most prominent at a workshop held in 1997 about future policy-making on agricultural knowledge (see the 1997 annual report).
• Large-scale innovation or 'system innovations.'
  Innovations at system level, involving several parties with divergent interests, will make considerably greater organisational demands than innovations which are relatively easy to incorporate within existing relations. In those system innovations it is essential to establish a broad base of support among those involved. A workshop held at the end of 1998 discussed how system innovations should be organised and managed. The report will be published in 1999.
• Innovation, knowledge and technology: Living Apart Together.
  Innovation has long been represented as the top of a knowledge iceberg: its basis was thought to be the practice of science ('basic research'), on top of which came technology development ('R&D'), which finally resulted in new products, services and processes. Innovations in this representation will eventually arise out of developments in science and - subsequently - technology. More recently, the iceberg model has been reversed and replaced by the representation of a demand-controlled innovation process. As the programme of foresight studies continued, both representations proved to be impossible. Based on more modern perceptions from the study of the dynamics of science and innovation management the NRLO has now reached a different arrangement and definition of relevant innovation concepts. This has resulted in a representation describing an LAT relationship (Living Apart Together) between three domains of creation: generating knowledge, developing technology and skills, and innovation (97/17 and the 1997 annual report).

  3.2 Perspectives for agricultural education

  At the request of the LNV Directorate for Science and Knowledge Transfer (DWK), NRLO and STOAS Research have jointly conducted a strategic exploration to examine points of departure for agricultural education in the NRLO foresight studies. The study covered the entire path of agricultural education.
  The end report (98/24) provides a broad outline of the challenges faced by agricultural education, including the changing demands made by the labour market as well as changing ideas about knowledge and learning.

  3.3 Methodology for quality assessment of academic research

  Wageningen Agricultural University, the Association of Universities in the Netherlands (VSNU), the Centre for Development Cooperation (COS) and the NRLO jointly have commissioned a project that is designed to include agricultural research in regular VSNU research assessments. As a whole, the objective of the study is to support the assessment committee in examining differences in research orientations between research programmes as well as programme performance in relation to its social mission and objectives. The methodology design is due to be published in 1999.

   

  [NRLO Home - English page]